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Breeders Cup 2016 Predictions


By Gerry Cats

Race 6 – BC Juvenile Turf (1 Mile)

Good Samaritan. This colt was very impressive in his last start in the G2 Summer Stakes at Woodbine Race Track scoring a 94 Beyer figure.  Woodbine Race Track Graded winners are often overlooked in the Breeders Cup, but not from me.

Oscar Performance. Coming in from the east coast off of two nice wins.  He has previously raced with a big field and won from the 10 post so this will not be new to him.  Shortening up to a mile will only improve his front running style.

My long shot pick: Ticonderoga (12-1).  He broke slow from the 2 spot last race and was caught in traffic but still managed to finish 2nd in a G3 at Keeneland.

Race 7 – BC Dirt Mile

Dortmund.  He’s been in the money in 12 of his career 13 starts (winning eight of them) and his only loses have been against California Chrome (three times this year) and twice to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah last year. It will be a big disappointment if he doesn’t win here.

Tamarkuz.  Look for him to be closing at the end with Mike Smith on board.  He hasn’t won in the U.S. yet but he should be in the money again.

My long shot pick:   Texas Chrome (30-1).  He has been steadily improving and will be coming in with three consecutive wins, two G3’s.  Look for him to be rating the leaders and try to close fast.

Race 8 – BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (1 Mile)

Hydrangea. I think this is the best of the six horses shipped in from overseas for this race.  If the turf is good look for her to finish strong.  Running for the first time with Lasix is always a positive.

Victory to Victory.  Winning a G1 on the turf at Woodbine proves you belong with the best.

La Coronel.  I like everything about this horse except his 14 post.  Won his last two starts on the turf easy by a combined eight plus lengths.

My long shot picks:  Coasted (20/1).  Throw out her last start on a yielding turf and with the jockey change to Mike Smith this filly may be in the money. Happy Mesa (30-1).  She possibly could have come into this race 3 for 3 if her jockey didn’t lose the whip in her last start.

Race 9 – BC Distaff (1 1/8 miles)

Songbird.  How do you bet against a horse who has never lost in 11 starts?  Not only that…she has never been seriously tested, winning every start by at least 4 ½ lengths.  It doesn’t bother me that she has never run against older fillies and mares.

Stellar Wind.  If any horse is going to beat Songbird for the Distaff it will be Stellar Wind.

Beholder.  Has lost only three starts out of her last 10 races the past two years.  Two were to Stellar Wind and one was to California Chrome.

No long shot pick, it will be a three horse race.


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